Party Political Animal

Archive for the ‘Gordon Brown’ Category

So Chloe Smith at 27 becomes the youngest Conservative MP for quite a while – since 1983, in fact, when I was also the youngest Tory at 27. Let that be a warning to you, Chloe!

Anyway, Chloe should be congratulated and the Tories are jubilant. But the steadier Tories are cautious too. The personal triumph for Chloe Smith was not as great victory for the Conservatives as appears at first sight – here’s why.

First, only 18% of voters bothered to turn out and vote Conservative in Norwich North. Those 13,591 people were fewer in number than voted Conservative in the 2005, 2001 or even the 1997 general elections.

In fact, the last time the Tories won the seat and a general election, in 1992, nearly twice as many people voted Tory in the constituency – and then, remember, the Conservatives only just scraped home in Norwich and the nation.

Of course, general election turnouts are higher than by elections. But check out the two big pre-1997 Tory by election defeats. In Staffs South East and the Wirral, Labour took the seats with massive swings of around 20% so and 50-60% of the vote on 60-70% turnouts – and those two seats had been considered safe Tory.

Chloe, by contrast, got well under 40% of the vote with just over a 16% swing  on a sub 50% turnout – and contrary to some reporting, Norwich North was not a safe Labour seat. It was and is a marginal which returned a Tory for most of the ’80s and ’90s. Labour, remember, were also hit by justified sympathy for Ian Gibson and Gordon Brown’s dysfunctional handling of the expenses issue.

Third parties, meanwhile, including UKIP and the Greens together polled more than a quarter of the votes. That figure strikes cold fear into the hearts of Tory strategists. They think the only thing that can rob them of outright victory next year is public disaffection with all the of the main parties manifesting itself in quirky third party votes.

I’m not so sure. Third party voting may be a factor in limiting Tory gains, but I don’t think it will be a major one. Few of the small parties really inspire and their showing drops off in general elections. I suspect people will show how pissed off they are by not bothering to vote at all. Public disaffection may have taken a sickening twist upwards since the expenses row, but it has been on the rise for years. General election turnouts peaked at 78% in 1992. Last time it was just a shade over 60%. I’m guessing not much more than 50% in 2010.

This should get David Cameron and the Conservatives thinking hard. The Norwich figures are horrible for Labour and not great for the Lib Dems. But they don’t show a people ready to be inspired by Cameron’s New Tories. Rather, the Tories now seem to be no more than the least bad option for many people.

Cameron has succeeded in changing the tone of the party and of course no-one should expect him to spell out every Tory policy before the election. But somewhere inbetween the broad feel of a party and the hard policy lies a sense of direction – what Blair’s mob used to call the “narrative”.

Thatcher had a narrative. Blair had it too. Cameron has it only in the sense that we all know he wants badly to win. I think people sense that and they’re not wholly comfortable with it. They’ve had it with the professionalised cadre of politicians for whom winning and power is the end, rather than the means to sorting the country out. It all links in uncomfortably in the public’s psyche with MPs ripping off  expenses.

So it’s Labour who are losing this election more than Cameron winning it. Like his role model, Tony Blair, before him, Cameron is very lucky politician. Like Blair, he’s lucky to have become leader at a time when the government is doing a pretty good job of opposing itself.

But if he was in a real scrap, being a great PR guy with the best media advice money can buy would not be enough. It certainly won’t be enough in government – as Cameron’s hero, Tony Blair, pretty quickly found out.

It’s almost enough to make you feel sorry for Gordon Brown – but I urge you to resist the temptation.
The news that “Lord” Levy had stuck his well-heeled boot into the prime minister should be taken for what it is: book – and self – promotion.

Yet spare no pity for Brown. There is, and never was, a Rizzla’s width between Blair and Brown on policy, as is becoming increasingly apparent. Brown, like Blair, signed up to the corrupt sale of peerages in which Levy was pivotal. Brown, like Blair, raised hardly a whimper about the failure to honour the ’97 election pledge to democratise the House of Lords.

Brown himself was doshed-up by numerous dubious characters like Geoffrey Robinson MP, whose short-lived job as Treasury Paymaster General could not have been unconnected with his generous support of Brown’s office – not to mention the flash gaffs he made available for Brown’s relaxation and pleasure.

What is becoming increasingly apparent is what a poisonous mob these Labour people are. They came to us in ’97 all creepy-smiley nice-guy, but all they have in common is mutual contempt, allied to an unhealthy lust for power at almost any cost.

Sure, we Tories fell out. But it was over policy, not personality. The main protagonists under Major – Heseltine, Clarke, Hurd, Rifkind, Howard etc etc – all remained at least cordial and often on very good terms.

Of course I exclude from that the most toxic of the Tory eurosceptics. But where are they now? Bemoaning the fate of the Euro, no doubt. Woops – maybe not.

But I digress – New Labour was backed from the word go by a bunch of self-serving spivs. Now Labour can do no more for them, the spivs have turned and are hastening their end.      

Phillip Oppenheim

Gordon Brown is probably breathing a huge sign of relief that T5 wasn’t on Nick and Carla’s itinerary of great British achievements. They did, however, look in on the Emirates – fine stadium: shame about the public transport – none of the local Tube stations have been upgraded as originally promised, plus the nearest train station is closed on match-days! But that would not have worried France’s first celeb couple as they were wafted to north London in a motorcade-accompanied limo.

I suspect, however, Nick and Carla did share a snigger behind well-manicured hands when they heard of T5’s travails. Of course we British don’t do grands projects as well as the French with their TGVs. And thank God for that. The TGVs are great, but much of the rest of the French rail system has been starved and has uncomfortable echoes of British Rail in the ‘70s. The true cost of the TGV has also been lost in opaque French state public accounting, but is generally accepted to be vastly in excess of the published figure. Personally, I always find it comforting to know that my TGV trip is being subsidised by some cassoulet gobbling Citroen worker.

But I digress. The T5 crisis in so many ways epitomises New Labour Britain. Promise a lot: deliver f**k all. “We will be the servants, not the masters”. Remember that? And “we will be whiter than white”?  For more than a decade, Brown, Blair and their publicly funded PR boys have been trumpeting how great Britain has become since 1997. Now, our true economic performance is about to be laid bare – private and public over-borrowing has disguised a steady loss of competitiveness.

Try getting through immigration with a British passport

But T5 is not really the problem. If you want to see how comprehensively this government misses the point, try getting through immigration with a British passport. I have landed in Britain three times in recent months to be met by a massive new sign, emblazoned with the words ‘UK Border’, and serried ranks of immigration officers in crinkly new uniforms.

On all three occasions, there were many more desks available to non-EU travellers and no queues. But the UK and EU channels had only two or three desks and all the time the line stretched almost back to the gate.

At Gatwick, a sort of fat-controller sat on a podium picking his nose, observing the chaos and doing nothing until passengers began shouting at him – then, magically, several desks were switched to EU and UK passengers and the queue melted.

It used to be one of the great glories of being British that when you returned home, the immigration officer wore an old Pringle golfing sweater. Now, it’s like coming back to a sort of nylon-clad Ruritania.    

Only fetishists, inadequates and children really get off on uniforms.  

But there’s more. A government task-forced – led by old Tory/new Labour Quentin Davies no less – is proposing that off-duty soldiers should wear uniform “to reassure the public.”

The last time that was allowed was under Oliver Cromwell – not our finest hour. Charles II abolished the practice and the ban on military uniforms in public has remained more or less in force during peacetime ever since. That is another glory of being British. Not to have loads of over-bearing people in uniform knocking about the place.

The number of uniforms on display in a given country tends to be inversely proportionate to that country’s quality of life. Only fetishists, inadequates and children really get off on uniforms.  

So, identity cards, huge signs at the borders, uniforms everywhere, terminal incompetence – what’s all that sign of?

Answer – crap country with over-powerful government.  

Phillip Oppenheim